2025 Federal Election
House of Representatives - who is leading?
This graph provides a pictorial view of the status of all House of Representatives contests and the potential for a party or party grouping to form government. The graph indicates:
- How many seats each party/party grouping is considered to be currently 'leading on 1st preferences' [used instead of available TCP data]
- How many seats each party/party grouping is considered to be currently 'leading on actual TCP'
- How many seats each party/party grouping is considered to be currently 'leading on actual TCP' but are considered 'close'
- How many seats are considered 'too close to attribute'
- How many seats have 'TCP unavailable' but have not been designated 'leading on 1st preferences'
Notes:
- Two candidate preferred (TCP) is a count of the two leading candidates only - votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. Actual TCP swing is reported. The base for the swing is total notional historic vote for the division. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
- ‘Leading on 1st preferences’ is used when appropriate TCP results are not available yet the 1st preference count clearly indicates the candidate expected to win [mainly used when an incorrect selection was made on the second TCP candidate].
- 'Leading on TCP' means more than 15.00% of the TCP count has been conducted and the current margin is greater than 6.00%.
- 'Close' means more than 15.00% of the TCP count has been conducted and the current margin is less than 6.00%.
- ‘Too close to attribute’ means the margin of TCP is so small as to not be able to accurately attribute the seat.
- 'TCP unavailable' means less than 15.00% of the TCP count has been conducted or the current TCP candidates are expected to change and a new count commenced, and 1st preferences do not clearly indicate a leading candidate.
- These results are not final.
This is amalgamated count data with seats attributed to parties based on votes counted at that time. When counting is ongoing, it does not represent an AEC prediction and should not be interpreted that way. Outcomes may differ from external predictions made by analysts who identify likely final results based on voting trends.
This is amalgamated count data with seats attributed to parties based on votes counted at that time. When counting is ongoing, it does not represent an AEC prediction and should not be interpreted that way. Outcomes may differ from external predictions made by analysts who identify likely final results based on voting trends.
Progress
- 0 of 150 House of Representatives seats have been declared.
- Seats are attributed to parties/party groupings based on actual TCP swing.
Party representation - who is leading?
This table provides the number of seats each party is currently leading within each state and territory, regardless of the size of the current margin. This table is sortable by selecting column headers.
Notes:
- 'leading' is used when more than 15.00% of the two candidate preferred (TCP) count has been conducted and the candidate is leading on TCP percentage.
- 'TCP unavailable' is used when less than 15.00% of the TCP count has been conducted.
- Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
- These results are not final.
| Party | NSW | VIC | QLD | WA | SA | TAS | ACT | NT | National | Previous election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | 23 | 24 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 81 | 77 |
| Liberal/National Coalition | 10 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 58 |
| Liberal | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 |
| Liberal National Party of Queensland | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| The Nationals | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| Country Liberal Party (NT) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| The Greens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Centre Alliance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Katter's Australian Party (KAP) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Independent | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 |
| Too close to attribute | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| TCP unavailable | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - |
| Total | 46 | 38 | 30 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 150 | - |
| Declared | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Which seats are currently close?
This table provides a list of 'close seats' by party. The table also provides the party who held the seat following the previous federal election and the current swing to or from that party.
This table is sortable by selecting column headers and you can access the current results for each seat by selecting the division name.
Notes:
- 'close seat' is used when more than 15.00% of the two candidate preferred (TCP) count has been conducted and the current margin is less than 6.00%
- 'swing' means the current percentage of TCP votes a party has received compared with the percentage of TCP votes that party received at the previous federal election
- Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
- The term 'Held by' may not relate to actual results from the last event. Redistributions of electoral boundaries are taken into account and may produce notional results for any electoral division in a redistributed state or territory. See www.aec.gov.au/redistribution for further information.
- These results are not final.
| Division | State | Held by | TCP % | Swing % | Counted % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Menzies | VIC | Liberal | 47.13 | -2.45 | 66.41 |
| Hughes | NSW | Liberal | 47.21 | -6.25 | 100.00 |
| Banks | NSW | Liberal | 47.74 | -4.90 | 100.00 |
| Petrie | QLD | LNP | 48.28 | -6.16 | 100.00 |
| Forde | QLD | LNP | 48.66 | -5.57 | 99.00 |
| Bradfield | NSW | Liberal | 48.98 | -4.42 | 98.65 |
| Cowper | NSW | The Nationals | 49.78 | -2.62 | 99.69 |
| Casey | VIC | Liberal | 49.81 | -1.62 | 99.99 |
| Longman | QLD | LNP | 49.82 | -3.26 | 100.00 |
| Forrest | WA | Liberal | 50.52 | -3.67 | 63.67 |
| Wills | VIC | Australian Labor Party | 50.58 | -8.45 | 97.56 |
| Goldstein | VIC | Independent | 51.00 | -0.80 | 100.00 |
| Berowra | NSW | Liberal | 51.32 | -6.24 | 99.78 |
| Kooyong | VIC | Independent | 51.72 | -0.80 | 100.00 |
| Bowman | QLD | LNP | 51.83 | -3.68 | 99.71 |
| La Trobe | VIC | Liberal | 52.22 | -6.21 | 97.87 |
| Fowler | NSW | Independent | 52.87 | +1.07 | 99.98 |
| Lindsay | NSW | Liberal | 52.92 | -3.19 | 77.66 |
Two party preferred
The national two party preferred (TPP) count represents the progressive aggregation of TPP counts in individual divisions.
This table provides a progressive national two party preferred (TPP) count. The data includes the current national TPP swing - a comparison of the current percentage of national TPP votes for each party compared to the percentage of TPP votes received at the previous federal election.
Notes:
- TPP is a count of House of Representatives votes for the two major parties - Australian Labor Party and Liberal/National Coalition - without taking into account preferences for other parties.
- These results are not final.
| Party / Coalition | Votes | Percentage % | Swing % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | 4,881,587 | 55.14 | +3.01 |
| Liberal/National Coalition | 3,970,755 | 44.86 | -3.01 |