2025 Federal Election
Incumbent trailing
Updated: Sun, 04 May 2025 4:17:43 PM AEST
This table provides the divisions where the incumbent party is currently trailing on the two candidate preferred (TCP) count.
The data includes the current percentage of TCP votes counted, the current percentage of TCP votes for the leading candidate and the current swing - the current percentage of TCP votes for the incumbent party compared to the previous election.
This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.
Notes:
- The incumbent party is the party that won that particular electoral division at the previous federal election.
- Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
- The term 'Incumbent' may not relate to actual results from the last event. Redistributions of electoral boundaries are taken into account and may produce notional results for any electoral division in a redistributed state or territory. See www.aec.gov.au/redistribution for further information.
- These results are not final.
| Division | State | TCP counted % | Incumbent | Led by | Leading TCP % | Swing % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bass | TAS | 100.00 | Liberal | Australian Labor Party | 58.73 | -10.16 |
| Braddon | TAS | 100.00 | Liberal | Australian Labor Party | 57.11 | -15.14 |
| Leichhardt | QLD | 99.68 | LNP | Australian Labor Party | 56.83 | -10.27 |
| Sturt | SA | 100.08 | Liberal | Australian Labor Party | 56.75 | -7.20 |
| Dickson | QLD | 97.70 | LNP | Australian Labor Party | 56.52 | -8.22 |
| Bonner | QLD | 98.94 | LNP | Australian Labor Party | 55.69 | -9.10 |
| Deakin | VIC | 100.00 | Liberal | Australian Labor Party | 54.33 | -4.35 |
| Aston | VIC | 98.72 | Liberal | Australian Labor Party | 53.24 | -5.85 |
| Moore | WA | 100.00 | Liberal | Australian Labor Party | 53.12 | -4.03 |
| Menzies | VIC | 67.95 | Liberal | Australian Labor Party | 52.74 | -2.32 |
| Hughes | NSW | 100.00 | Liberal | Labor | 52.47 | -5.93 |
| Banks | NSW | 100.00 | Liberal | Labor | 52.12 | -4.76 |
| Forde | QLD | 99.14 | LNP | Australian Labor Party | 51.77 | -6.00 |
| Petrie | QLD | 100.00 | LNP | Australian Labor Party | 51.51 | -5.95 |
| Longman | QLD | 100.00 | LNP | Australian Labor Party | 50.16 | -3.24 |
| Calare | NSW | 99.74 | The Nationals | Independent | 56.35 | +43.65 |
| Bendigo | VIC | 33.06 | Australian Labor Party | The Nationals | 53.20 | +46.80 |
| Bradfield | NSW | 98.66 | Liberal | Independent | 50.88 | -4.28 |