2025 Federal Election

Incumbent trailing

Updated: Sat, 24 May 2025 6:40:40 PM AEST

This table provides the divisions where the incumbent party is currently trailing on the two candidate preferred (TCP) count.

The data includes the current percentage of TCP votes counted, the current percentage of TCP votes for the leading candidate and the current swing - the current percentage of TCP votes for the incumbent party compared to the previous election.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.

Notes:

  1. The incumbent party is the party that won that particular electoral division at the previous federal election.
  2. Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
  3. The term 'Incumbent' may not relate to actual results from the last event. Redistributions of electoral boundaries are taken into account and may produce notional results for any electoral division in a redistributed state or territory. See www.aec.gov.au/redistribution for further information.
  4. These results are not final.
Division State TCP counted % Incumbent Led by Leading TCP % Swing %
Griffith QLD 100.00 The Greens Australian Labor Party 60.58 +39.42
Leichhardt QLD 100.00 LNP Australian Labor Party 56.13 -9.57
Dickson QLD 100.00 LNP Australian Labor Party 56.06 -7.76
Moore WA 100.00 Liberal Australian Labor Party 53.03 -3.94
Melbourne VIC 100.00 The Greens Australian Labor Party 53.00 -8.58
Forde QLD 100.00 LNP Australian Labor Party 51.80 -6.03
Petrie QLD 100.00 LNP Australian Labor Party 51.12 -5.56
Menzies VIC 100.00 Liberal Australian Labor Party 51.09 -0.67
Calare NSW 100.00 The Nationals Independent 56.48 +43.52
Goldstein VIC 100.00 Independent Liberal 50.11 -1.91