2025 Federal Election

Dunkley, VIC

Updated: Sun, 04 May 2025 12:31:43 PM AEST

This table provides the current two candidate preferred (TCP) count for the division. The data includes swing - a comparison of the percentage of TCP votes received at the previous federal election compared to the current federal election.

Notes:

  1. Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
  2. The term 'Previous election' may not relate to actual results from the last event. Redistributions of electoral boundaries are taken into account and may produce notional results for any electoral division in a redistributed state or territory. See www.aec.gov.au/redistribution for further information.
  3. These results are not final.
Two candidate preferred (TCP) for Dunkley (VIC) 42 of 45 polling places returned and 75.66% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin This election (%) Previous election (%) Swing (%) Status
CONROY, NathanLiberal21,448-8,36741.8443.23-1.39 
BELYEA, JodieAustralian Labor Party29,8158,36758.1656.77+1.39Previous Member

This table provides the number of first preference votes received for all candidates in the division. The data includes swing - a comparison of the percentage of first preference votes received at the previous federal election compared to the current federal election.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.

Notes:

  1. These results are not final.
First preference count for the division of Dunkley (VIC)
43 of 45 polling places returned.
Candidate Party Votes % Swing (%) Status
CONROY, Nathan Liberal 20,959 30.93 -0.82  
THURLEY, Robert Independent 1,923 2.84 +2.84  
DAVIS, Jessica Pauline Hanson's One Nation 5,499 8.12 +5.13  
NICHOLES, Peter Family First 1,571 2.32 +2.32  
MABER, Matt The Greens 8,071 11.91 +1.29  
GATLEY, Andrew FUSION | Planet Rescue | Whistleblower Protection | Innovation 590 0.87 +0.87  
BELYEA, Jodie Australian Labor Party 25,764 38.03 -2.42 Previous Member
ABBOTT, Lisa Legalise Cannabis Party 3,378 4.99 +4.99  
...... Liberal Democratic Party 0 0.00 -2.89  
...... Animal Justice Party 0 0.00 -2.21  
...... Trumpet of Patriots 0 0.00 -0.51  
...... United Australia Party 0 0.00 -5.24  
...... Other 0 0.00 -3.35  
Formal   67,755 95.17 -0.18  
Informal   3,441 4.83 +0.18  
Total   71,196  

This table provides the number and percentage breakdown of first preference votes received by vote type for the division.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.

Notes:

  1. An ordinary vote is a vote cast by an elector when their name can be verified on the electoral roll at the place of voting. This can be at an early voting centre or polling place in the voter's own division or at an interstate voting centre.
  2. An absent vote is a vote cast at a polling place outside of a voter's electoral division, but still within their state or territory.
  3. Provisional votes are votes cast at a polling place where the elector's name cannot be found on the roll, the elector's name has already been marked off the roll or votes cast by a silent elector.
  4. These results are not final.
First preferences by vote type
Candidate Party Ordinary Absent Provisional Declaration pre-poll Postal Total Status
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
CONROY, Nathan Liberal 20,258 30.79 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 701 35.91 20,959 30.93  
THURLEY, Robert Independent 1,857 2.82 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 66 3.38 1,923 2.84  
DAVIS, Jessica Pauline Hanson's One Nation 5,360 8.15 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 139 7.12 5,499 8.12  
NICHOLES, Peter Family First 1,527 2.32 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 44 2.25 1,571 2.32  
MABER, Matt The Greens 7,957 12.09 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 114 5.84 8,071 11.91  
GATLEY, Andrew FUSION | Planet Rescue | Whistleblower Protection | Innovation 572 0.87 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 18 0.92 590 0.87  
BELYEA, Jodie Australian Labor Party 24,970 37.95 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 794 40.68 25,764 38.03 Previous Member
ABBOTT, Lisa Legalise Cannabis Party 3,302 5.02 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 76 3.89 3,378 4.99  
Formal   65,803 95.09 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 1,952 97.89 67,755 95.17  
Informal   3,399 4.91 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 42 2.11 3,441 4.83  
Total   69,202 97.20 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 1,994 2.80 71,196 57.23  

This table provides the number and percentage breakdown of two candidate preferred (TCP) votes received by vote type for the division.

Notes:

  1. Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
  2. An ordinary vote is a vote cast by an elector when their name can be verified on the electoral roll at the place of voting. This can be at an early voting centre or polling place in the voter's own division or at an interstate voting centre.
  3. An absent vote is a vote cast at a polling place outside of a voter's electoral division, but still within their state or territory.
  4. Provisional votes are votes cast at a polling place where the elector's name cannot be found on the roll, the elector's name has already been marked off the roll or votes cast by a silent elector.
  5. These results are not final.
Two candidate preferred result by vote type
Candidate Party Ordinary Absent Provisional Declaration pre-poll Postal Total Status
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
CONROY, Nathan Liberal 20,554 41.68 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 894 45.80 21,448 41.84  
BELYEA, Jodie Australian Labor Party 28,757 58.32 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 1,058 54.20 29,815 58.16 Previous Member

This table provides a list of the polling places in the division and the time and date of the most recent updated results for that polling place.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers and you can find polling place results by selecting on the name of the polling place.

Notes:

  1. These results are not final.
Polling places for Dunkley (VIC)
Polling place Street address First preference returned Two candidate preferred (TCP) returned
Baxter (Dunkley) Baxter Primary School, 120 Grant Rd, BAXTER VIC 3911 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:53:08 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 7:55:54 PM AEST
Bonbeach Bonbeach Primary School, 29-63 Breeze St, BONBEACH VIC 3196 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:28:30 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:40:28 PM AEST
Carrum Carrum Primary School, 2-6 Church Rd, CARRUM VIC 3197 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:30:32 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:31:25 PM AEST
Carrum Downs Banyan Fields Primary School, 90 Cadles Rd, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:30:08 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:30:45 PM AEST
Carrum Downs Central Lyrebird Community Centre, 203 Lyrebird Dr, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:12:33 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 11:19:21 PM AEST
Carrum Downs DUNKLEY PPVC Lyrebird Community Centre, 203 Lyrebird Dr, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Sun, 04 May 2025 12:13:15 AM AEST
Carrum Downs North Carrum Downs Secondary College, 263 McCormicks Rd, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Sat, 03 May 2025 10:11:40 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 10:12:27 PM AEST
Carrum Downs South Rowellyn Park Primary School, 15 Rowellyn Ave, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:11:26 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:16:25 PM AEST
Carrum Downs West 1st Carrum Downs Scout Hall, 3 Arbor Way, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:38:40 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 7:41:32 PM AEST
Chelsea Central (Dunkley) Chelsea Primary School, 34-44 Argyle Ave, CHELSEA VIC 3196 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:06:27 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:07:41 PM AEST
Chelsea Heights (Dunkley) Chelsea Heights Primary School, 194 Thames Prmnde, CHELSEA HEIGHTS VIC 3196 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:50:20 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:09:44 PM AEST
EAV Dunkley PPVC AEC National EAV Centre, 10 Mort St, CANBERRA ACT 2601 Sun, 04 May 2025 12:11:12 AM AEST Sun, 04 May 2025 12:01:51 AM AEST
Frankston Overport Primary School, 56A Towerhill Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:20:12 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:26:15 PM AEST
Frankston Central Frankston Primary School, 40 Davey St, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 10:36:43 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 10:37:15 PM AEST
Frankston DUNKLEY PPVC Functions By The Bay, Cnr Plowman Pl and Young St, FRANKSTON VIC 3199
Frankston East John Paul College, 161 McMahons Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:44:46 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:46:07 PM AEST
Frankston Heights Frankston Heights Primary School, 10 Kalmia St, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:13:36 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:16:56 PM AEST
Frankston Heights East Kingsley Park Primary School, 70-86 Franciscan Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:25:25 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 7:47:22 PM AEST
Frankston North Aldercourt Primary School, 14B Silver Ave, FRANKSTON NORTH VIC 3200 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:20:22 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:43:30 PM AEST
Frankston Rail Chisholm Institute (Frankston Campus - Building A), 25 Fletcher Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:52:03 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:06:51 PM AEST
Frankston South Derinya Primary School, 119 Overport Rd, FRANKSTON SOUTH VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:38:18 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:20:51 PM AEST
Frankston South East Mount Erin Secondary College, 43 Robinsons Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:12:49 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:49:20 PM AEST
Frankston South West Baden Powell Scout Hall, U1 77R Baden Powell Dr, FRANKSTON SOUTH VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:11:57 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:12:48 PM AEST
Karingal Frankston East Primary School, 6A Ashleigh Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:42:13 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:00:56 PM AEST
Karingal Central McClelland College, 31 Belar Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:14:12 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:17:58 PM AEST
Karingal Heights Karingal Heights Primary School, 12 Havana Cres, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:24:46 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:25:31 PM AEST
Langwarrin Elisabeth Murdoch College, 80 Warrandyte Rd, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:45:14 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:45:55 PM AEST
Langwarrin Central Langwarrin Public Hall, 2/183 Cranbourne-Frankston Rd, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:23:06 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:23:56 PM AEST
Langwarrin North Woodlands Primary School, 10 Gum Nut Dr, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:20:01 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:03:58 PM AEST
Langwarrin Park Langwarrin Park Primary School, 19-27 Northgateway, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:38:55 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:39:48 PM AEST
Mordialloc DUNKLEY PPVC 4th Mordialloc Sea Scouts Hall, 24 Park St, MORDIALLOC VIC 3195 Sat, 03 May 2025 11:40:06 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 11:50:35 PM AEST
Mount Eliza (Dunkley) Mount Eliza Secondary College, 204 Canadian Bay Rd, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:48:59 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 7:49:39 PM AEST
Mount Eliza DUNKLEY PPVC Mount Eliza Community Hall, 90-100 Canadian Bay Rd, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:22:10 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 10:44:57 PM AEST
Mount Eliza North Mount Eliza North Primary School, 6 Moseley Dr, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:45:57 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:23:46 PM AEST
Other Mobile Team 1 Multiple sites, VIC
Patterson Central Patterson Lakes Community Centre, 54-70 Thompson Rd, PATTERSON LAKES VIC 3197 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:25:53 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:26:36 PM AEST
Patterson Lakes Patterson Lakes Primary School, 130-148 Gladesville Blvd, PATTERSON LAKES VIC 3197 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:06:11 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:07:05 PM AEST
Seaford Seaford Primary School, 10 McRae St, SEAFORD VIC 3198 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:33:35 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:34:27 PM AEST
Seaford East Belvedere Park Primary School, 30 Belvedere Rd, SEAFORD VIC 3198 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:42:41 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:14:59 PM AEST
Seaford North Seaford North Primary School, 81 Hallifax St, SEAFORD VIC 3198 Sat, 03 May 2025 8:39:44 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:40:45 PM AEST
Seaford South Kananook Primary School, 22 Wells Rd, SEAFORD VIC 3198 Sat, 03 May 2025 7:57:03 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 8:34:38 PM AEST
Skye Skye Primary School, 395 Ballarto Rd, SKYE VIC 3977 Sat, 03 May 2025 9:06:19 PM AEST Sat, 03 May 2025 9:07:24 PM AEST
Special Hospital Team 1 Multiple sites, VIC Sun, 04 May 2025 12:05:01 PM AEST Sun, 04 May 2025 12:05:01 PM AEST
Special Hospital Team 2 Multiple sites, VIC Sun, 04 May 2025 12:31:43 PM AEST Sun, 04 May 2025 12:31:43 PM AEST
Special Hospital Team 3 Multiple sites, VIC Sun, 04 May 2025 12:06:49 PM AEST Sun, 04 May 2025 12:06:49 PM AEST

This table provides the current two candidate preferred (TCP) count for each polling place in the division. The data includes swing - a comparison of the percentage of TCP votes received at the previous federal election compared to the current federal election.

Notes:

  1. Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
  2. These results are not final.
Two candidate preferred by polling place
Polling place Formal BELYEA, Jodie
Australian Labor Party
CONROY, Nathan
Liberal
Swing
Votes % Votes %
Baxter (Dunkley) 489 227 46.42 262 53.58 5.58
Bonbeach 1,399 856 61.19 543 38.81 2.64
Carrum 1,340 822 61.34 518 38.66 2.33
Carrum Downs 1,413 857 60.65 556 39.35 -1.56
Carrum Downs Central 1,575 960 60.95 615 39.05 -0.75
Carrum Downs DUNKLEY PPVC 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 -56.07
Carrum Downs North 1,764 1,006 57.03 758 42.97 1.20
Carrum Downs South 1,057 668 63.20 389 36.80 0.54
Carrum Downs West 316 178 56.33 138 43.67 0.44
Chelsea Central (Dunkley) 1,648 1,102 66.87 546 33.13 3.24
Chelsea Heights (Dunkley) 1,015 644 63.45 371 36.55 2.93
EAV Dunkley PPVC 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 -50.00
Frankston 1,557 1,039 66.73 518 33.27 1.83
Frankston Central 973 598 61.46 375 38.54 1.43
Frankston DUNKLEY PPVC 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 -57.82
Frankston East 1,213 554 45.67 659 54.33 -13.22
Frankston Heights 1,133 710 62.67 423 37.33 2.14
Frankston Heights East 1,186 674 56.83 512 43.17 -1.91
Frankston North 1,184 782 66.05 402 33.95 1.64
Frankston Rail 887 584 65.84 303 34.16 -1.26
Frankston South 1,287 716 55.63 571 44.37 1.86
Frankston South East 1,681 875 52.05 806 47.95 0.74
Frankston South West 1,140 636 55.79 504 44.21 5.16
Karingal 1,538 1,002 65.15 536 34.85 0.64
Karingal Central 771 496 64.33 275 35.67 -0.66
Karingal Heights 1,316 819 62.23 497 37.77 0.22
Langwarrin 2,017 1,103 54.69 914 45.31 0.78
Langwarrin Central 1,451 742 51.14 709 48.86 -2.96
Langwarrin North 1,267 704 55.56 563 44.44 -0.30
Langwarrin Park 1,808 1,040 57.52 768 42.48 3.17
Mordialloc DUNKLEY PPVC 2,649 1,386 52.32 1,263 47.68 -4.26
Mount Eliza (Dunkley) 363 182 50.14 181 49.86 5.79
Mount Eliza DUNKLEY PPVC 2,444 1,228 50.25 1,216 49.75 1.63
Mount Eliza North 479 243 50.73 236 49.27 -5.51
Other Mobile Team 1 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 -53.33
Patterson Central 1,128 572 50.71 556 49.29 1.33
Patterson Lakes 1,172 579 49.40 593 50.60 2.36
Seaford 1,208 781 64.65 427 35.35 1.30
Seaford East 1,632 989 60.60 643 39.40 -1.18
Seaford North 1,059 677 63.93 382 36.07 1.91
Seaford South 1,181 811 68.67 370 31.33 5.48
Skye 1,115 667 59.82 448 40.18 1.23
Special Hospital Team 1 143 77 53.85 66 46.15 -0.32
Special Hospital Team 2 143 79 55.24 64 44.76 1.26
Special Hospital Team 3 170 92 54.12 78 45.88 0.53
ABSENT 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00
PRE_POLL 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00
POSTAL 1,952 1,058 54.20 894 45.80 0.00
PROVISIONAL 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00
Division Total 51,263 29,815 58.16 21,448 41.84 1.39

This table shows the progress of Declaration vote scrutiny for a particular division. In this table you will find...

  • The number declaration vote envelopes issued for the division.
  • The number of declaration vote envelopes received by the division.
  • The number of envelopes rejected at preliminary scrutiny.
  • The number of declaration vote ballot papers counted.

Notes:

  1. These results are not final.
Declaration vote scrutiny progress
Absent Provisional Declaration pre-poll Postal Total
Envelopes issued 101 0 139 26,096 26,336
Envelopes received 0 0 0 19,892 19,892
Ballot papers counted 0 0 0 1,994 1,994
Ballot papers not returned by voter 0 0 0 9 9
Ballot papers disallowed 0 0 0 0 0
Envelopes rejected at preliminary scrutiny 0 0 0 389 389
Envelopes processed 0 0 0 2,392 2,392
Envelopes awaiting processing 0 0 0 17,500 17,500

Profile of division of Dunkley (VIC)
Elected member Belyea, J (ALP). Elected 2024.
Name derivation Named in honour of Louisa Margaret Dunkley, 1866-1927. Dunkley was a union leader and feminist who founded the Victorian Women's Post and Telegraph Association in 1900 and campaigned for equal pay for women.
First proclaimed / election 2024/1984
Area 148 sq. kms
Demographic Outer Metropolitan
Pre-Election seat status Fairly Safe
Seat status Undefined
Location The Division of Dunkley consists of Frankston City Council, part of the Kingston City Council, and part of the Mornington Peninsula Shire Council.
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