2025 Federal Election

Dunkley, VIC

Updated: Fri, 23 May 2025 4:59:25 PM AEST

This table provides the current two candidate preferred (TCP) count for the division. The data includes swing - a comparison of the percentage of TCP votes received at the previous federal election compared to the current federal election.

Notes:

  1. Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
  2. The term 'Previous election' may not relate to actual results from the last event. Redistributions of electoral boundaries are taken into account and may produce notional results for any electoral division in a redistributed state or territory. See www.aec.gov.au/redistribution for further information.
  3. These results are not final.
Two candidate preferred (TCP) for Dunkley (VIC) 45 of 45 polling places returned and 100.00% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin This election (%) Previous election (%) Swing (%) Status
CONROY, NathanLiberal46,973-15,22643.0343.23-0.20 
BELYEA, JodieAustralian Labor Party62,19915,22656.9756.77+0.20Previous Member

This table provides the number of first preference votes received for all candidates in the division. The data includes swing - a comparison of the percentage of first preference votes received at the previous federal election compared to the current federal election.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.

Notes:

  1. These results are not final.
First preference count for the division of Dunkley (VIC)
45 of 45 polling places returned.
Candidate Party Votes % Swing (%) Status
CONROY, Nathan Liberal 35,282 32.32 +0.57  
THURLEY, Robert Independent 3,231 2.96 +2.96  
DAVIS, Jessica Pauline Hanson's One Nation 7,495 6.87 +3.88  
NICHOLES, Peter Family First 2,499 2.29 +2.29  
MABER, Matt The Greens 12,654 11.59 +0.97  
GATLEY, Andrew FUSION | Planet Rescue | Whistleblower Protection | Innovation 981 0.90 +0.90  
BELYEA, Jodie Australian Labor Party 41,790 38.28 -2.17 Previous Member
ABBOTT, Lisa Legalise Cannabis Party 5,240 4.80 +4.80  
...... Liberal Democratic Party 0 0.00 -2.89  
...... Animal Justice Party 0 0.00 -2.21  
...... Trumpet of Patriots 0 0.00 -0.51  
...... United Australia Party 0 0.00 -5.24  
...... Other 0 0.00 -3.35  
Formal   109,172 95.16 -0.19  
Informal   5,553 4.84 +0.19  
Total   114,725  

This table provides the number and percentage breakdown of first preference votes received by vote type for the division.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.

Notes:

  1. An ordinary vote is a vote cast by an elector when their name can be verified on the electoral roll at the place of voting. This can be at an early voting centre or polling place in the voter's own division or at an interstate voting centre.
  2. An absent vote is a vote cast at a polling place outside of a voter's electoral division, but still within their state or territory.
  3. Provisional votes are votes cast at a polling place where the elector's name cannot be found on the roll, the elector's name has already been marked off the roll or votes cast by a silent elector.
  4. These results are not final.
First preferences by vote type
Candidate Party Ordinary Absent Provisional Declaration pre-poll Postal Total Status
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
CONROY, Nathan Liberal 25,327 31.63 978 27.83 29 26.61 1,139 33.26 7,809 35.40 35,282 32.32  
THURLEY, Robert Independent 2,330 2.91 106 3.02 3 2.75 113 3.30 679 3.08 3,231 2.96  
DAVIS, Jessica Pauline Hanson's One Nation 5,156 6.44 275 7.83 6 5.50 291 8.50 1,767 8.01 7,495 6.87  
NICHOLES, Peter Family First 1,865 2.33 105 2.99 8 7.34 65 1.90 456 2.07 2,499 2.29  
MABER, Matt The Greens 9,711 12.13 568 16.16 15 13.76 483 14.10 1,877 8.51 12,654 11.59  
GATLEY, Andrew FUSION | Planet Rescue | Whistleblower Protection | Innovation 663 0.83 46 1.31 0 0.00 34 0.99 238 1.08 981 0.90  
BELYEA, Jodie Australian Labor Party 31,213 38.99 1,110 31.59 43 39.45 1,088 31.77 8,336 37.79 41,790 38.28 Previous Member
ABBOTT, Lisa Legalise Cannabis Party 3,799 4.74 326 9.28 5 4.59 212 6.19 898 4.07 5,240 4.80  
Formal   80,064 94.69 3,514 93.53 109 95.61 3,425 94.80 22,060 97.22 109,172 95.16  
Informal   4,486 5.31 243 6.47 5 4.39 188 5.20 631 2.78 5,553 4.84  
Total   84,550 73.70 3,757 3.27 114 0.10 3,613 3.15 22,691 19.78 114,725 92.22  

This table provides the number and percentage breakdown of two candidate preferred (TCP) votes received by vote type for the division.

Notes:

  1. Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
  2. An ordinary vote is a vote cast by an elector when their name can be verified on the electoral roll at the place of voting. This can be at an early voting centre or polling place in the voter's own division or at an interstate voting centre.
  3. An absent vote is a vote cast at a polling place outside of a voter's electoral division, but still within their state or territory.
  4. Provisional votes are votes cast at a polling place where the elector's name cannot be found on the roll, the elector's name has already been marked off the roll or votes cast by a silent elector.
  5. These results are not final.
Two candidate preferred result by vote type
Candidate Party Ordinary Absent Provisional Declaration pre-poll Postal Total Status
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
CONROY, Nathan Liberal 33,480 41.82 1,472 41.89 45 41.28 1,581 46.16 10,395 47.12 46,973 43.03  
BELYEA, Jodie Australian Labor Party 46,584 58.18 2,042 58.11 64 58.72 1,844 53.84 11,665 52.88 62,199 56.97 Previous Member

This table provides a list of the polling places in the division and the time and date of the most recent updated results for that polling place.

This table is sortable by selecting on column headers and you can find polling place results by selecting on the name of the polling place.

Notes:

  1. These results are not final.
Polling places for Dunkley (VIC)
Polling place Street address First preference returned Two candidate preferred (TCP) returned
Baxter (Dunkley) Baxter Primary School, 120 Grant Rd, BAXTER VIC 3911 Fri, 23 May 2025 9:40:06 AM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 9:40:06 AM AEST
Bonbeach Bonbeach Primary School, 29-63 Breeze St, BONBEACH VIC 3196 Tue, 06 May 2025 2:06:39 PM AEST Tue, 06 May 2025 2:06:39 PM AEST
Carrum Carrum Primary School, 2-6 Church Rd, CARRUM VIC 3197 Thu, 22 May 2025 1:30:59 PM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 1:30:59 PM AEST
Carrum Downs Banyan Fields Primary School, 90 Cadles Rd, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Fri, 23 May 2025 9:59:38 AM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 9:59:38 AM AEST
Carrum Downs Central Lyrebird Community Centre, 203 Lyrebird Dr, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Thu, 22 May 2025 2:19:33 PM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 2:19:33 PM AEST
Carrum Downs DUNKLEY PPVC Lyrebird Community Centre, 203 Lyrebird Dr, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Fri, 23 May 2025 12:52:51 PM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 12:52:51 PM AEST
Carrum Downs North Carrum Downs Secondary College, 263 McCormicks Rd, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Fri, 23 May 2025 10:38:05 AM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 10:38:05 AM AEST
Carrum Downs South Rowellyn Park Primary School, 15 Rowellyn Ave, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Fri, 23 May 2025 10:16:38 AM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 10:16:38 AM AEST
Carrum Downs West 1st Carrum Downs Scout Hall, 3 Arbor Way, CARRUM DOWNS VIC 3201 Tue, 06 May 2025 5:06:38 PM AEST Tue, 06 May 2025 5:06:38 PM AEST
Chelsea Central (Dunkley) Chelsea Primary School, 34-44 Argyle Ave, CHELSEA VIC 3196 Thu, 22 May 2025 2:40:48 PM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 2:40:48 PM AEST
Chelsea Heights (Dunkley) Chelsea Heights Primary School, 194 Thames Prmnde, CHELSEA HEIGHTS VIC 3196 Thu, 22 May 2025 9:37:27 AM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 9:37:27 AM AEST
EAV Dunkley PPVC AEC National EAV Centre, 10 Mort St, CANBERRA ACT 2601 Thu, 08 May 2025 6:36:06 PM AEST Thu, 08 May 2025 6:36:06 PM AEST
Frankston Overport Primary School, 56A Towerhill Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Mon, 19 May 2025 12:56:46 PM AEST Mon, 19 May 2025 12:56:46 PM AEST
Frankston Central Frankston Primary School, 40 Davey St, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Tue, 06 May 2025 5:41:24 PM AEST Tue, 06 May 2025 5:41:24 PM AEST
Frankston DUNKLEY PPVC Functions By The Bay, Cnr Plowman Pl and Young St, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Fri, 23 May 2025 4:15:11 PM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 4:15:11 PM AEST
Frankston East John Paul College, 161 McMahons Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Thu, 22 May 2025 10:24:52 AM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 10:24:52 AM AEST
Frankston Heights Frankston Heights Primary School, 10 Kalmia St, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Thu, 22 May 2025 3:06:46 PM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 3:06:46 PM AEST
Frankston Heights East Kingsley Park Primary School, 70-86 Franciscan Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Fri, 23 May 2025 1:02:46 PM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 1:02:46 PM AEST
Frankston North Aldercourt Primary School, 14B Silver Ave, FRANKSTON NORTH VIC 3200 Thu, 22 May 2025 3:12:42 PM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 3:12:42 PM AEST
Frankston Rail Chisholm Institute (Frankston Campus - Building A), 25 Fletcher Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Thu, 22 May 2025 10:08:45 AM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 10:08:45 AM AEST
Frankston South Derinya Primary School, 119 Overport Rd, FRANKSTON SOUTH VIC 3199 Wed, 07 May 2025 3:20:33 PM AEST Wed, 07 May 2025 3:20:33 PM AEST
Frankston South East Mount Erin Secondary College, 43 Robinsons Rd, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Thu, 22 May 2025 3:00:42 PM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 3:00:42 PM AEST
Frankston South West Baden Powell Scout Hall, U1 77R Baden Powell Dr, FRANKSTON SOUTH VIC 3199 Wed, 07 May 2025 4:14:51 PM AEST Wed, 07 May 2025 4:14:51 PM AEST
Karingal Frankston East Primary School, 6A Ashleigh Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Thu, 22 May 2025 3:20:31 PM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 3:20:31 PM AEST
Karingal Central McClelland College, 31 Belar Ave, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Wed, 07 May 2025 5:34:36 PM AEST Wed, 07 May 2025 5:34:36 PM AEST
Karingal Heights Karingal Heights Primary School, 12 Havana Cres, FRANKSTON VIC 3199 Wed, 07 May 2025 5:26:12 PM AEST Wed, 07 May 2025 5:26:12 PM AEST
Langwarrin Elisabeth Murdoch College, 80 Warrandyte Rd, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910 Thu, 08 May 2025 5:51:02 PM AEST Thu, 08 May 2025 5:51:02 PM AEST
Langwarrin Central Langwarrin Public Hall, 2/183 Cranbourne-Frankston Rd, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910 Thu, 08 May 2025 12:44:44 PM AEST Thu, 08 May 2025 12:44:44 PM AEST
Langwarrin North Woodlands Primary School, 10 Gum Nut Dr, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910 Thu, 08 May 2025 5:52:40 PM AEST Thu, 08 May 2025 5:52:40 PM AEST
Langwarrin Park Langwarrin Park Primary School, 19-27 Northgateway, LANGWARRIN VIC 3910 Fri, 23 May 2025 1:58:14 PM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 1:58:14 PM AEST
Mordialloc DUNKLEY PPVC 4th Mordialloc Sea Scouts Hall, 24 Park St, MORDIALLOC VIC 3195 Fri, 23 May 2025 2:07:41 PM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 2:07:41 PM AEST
Mount Eliza (Dunkley) Mount Eliza Secondary College, 204 Canadian Bay Rd, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930 Thu, 08 May 2025 2:27:04 PM AEST Thu, 08 May 2025 2:27:04 PM AEST
Mount Eliza DUNKLEY PPVC Mount Eliza Community Hall, 90-100 Canadian Bay Rd, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930 Thu, 22 May 2025 4:50:18 PM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 4:50:18 PM AEST
Mount Eliza North Mount Eliza North Primary School, 6 Moseley Dr, MOUNT ELIZA VIC 3930 Wed, 07 May 2025 5:37:58 PM AEST Wed, 07 May 2025 5:37:58 PM AEST
Other Mobile Team 1 Multiple sites, VIC Fri, 23 May 2025 3:32:42 PM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 3:32:42 PM AEST
Patterson Central Patterson Lakes Community Centre, 54-70 Thompson Rd, PATTERSON LAKES VIC 3197 Thu, 08 May 2025 2:25:19 PM AEST Thu, 08 May 2025 2:25:19 PM AEST
Patterson Lakes Patterson Lakes Primary School, 130-148 Gladesville Blvd, PATTERSON LAKES VIC 3197 Fri, 23 May 2025 3:55:36 PM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 3:55:36 PM AEST
Seaford Seaford Primary School, 10 McRae St, SEAFORD VIC 3198 Mon, 19 May 2025 5:29:23 PM AEST Mon, 19 May 2025 5:29:23 PM AEST
Seaford East Belvedere Park Primary School, 30 Belvedere Rd, SEAFORD VIC 3198 Thu, 08 May 2025 6:00:32 PM AEST Thu, 08 May 2025 6:00:32 PM AEST
Seaford North Seaford North Primary School, 81 Hallifax St, SEAFORD VIC 3198 Mon, 19 May 2025 10:56:23 AM AEST Mon, 19 May 2025 10:56:23 AM AEST
Seaford South Kananook Primary School, 22 Wells Rd, SEAFORD VIC 3198 Fri, 23 May 2025 3:42:27 PM AEST Fri, 23 May 2025 3:42:27 PM AEST
Skye Skye Primary School, 395 Ballarto Rd, SKYE VIC 3977 Thu, 22 May 2025 10:46:54 AM AEST Thu, 22 May 2025 10:46:54 AM AEST
Special Hospital Team 1 Multiple sites, VIC Mon, 19 May 2025 6:17:18 PM AEST Mon, 19 May 2025 6:17:18 PM AEST
Special Hospital Team 2 Multiple sites, VIC Mon, 19 May 2025 6:18:46 PM AEST Mon, 19 May 2025 6:18:46 PM AEST
Special Hospital Team 3 Multiple sites, VIC Mon, 19 May 2025 6:09:51 PM AEST Mon, 19 May 2025 6:09:51 PM AEST

This table provides the current two candidate preferred (TCP) count for each polling place in the division. The data includes swing - a comparison of the percentage of TCP votes received at the previous federal election compared to the current federal election.

Notes:

  1. Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
  2. These results are not final.
Two candidate preferred by polling place
Polling place Formal BELYEA, Jodie
Australian Labor Party
CONROY, Nathan
Liberal
Swing
Votes % Votes %
Baxter (Dunkley) 487 227 46.61 260 53.39 5.77
Bonbeach 1,400 856 61.14 544 38.86 2.59
Carrum 1,342 824 61.40 518 38.60 2.39
Carrum Downs 1,412 855 60.55 557 39.45 -1.66
Carrum Downs Central 1,562 946 60.56 616 39.44 -1.14
Carrum Downs DUNKLEY PPVC 15,430 8,692 56.33 6,738 43.67 0.26
Carrum Downs North 1,752 1,004 57.31 748 42.69 1.48
Carrum Downs South 1,056 668 63.26 388 36.74 0.60
Carrum Downs West 315 178 56.51 137 43.49 0.62
Chelsea Central (Dunkley) 1,644 1,099 66.85 545 33.15 3.22
Chelsea Heights (Dunkley) 1,011 647 64.00 364 36.00 3.48
EAV Dunkley PPVC 13 10 76.92 3 23.08 26.92
Frankston 1,551 1,081 69.70 470 30.30 4.80
Frankston Central 966 594 61.49 372 38.51 1.46
Frankston DUNKLEY PPVC 15,110 8,679 57.44 6,431 42.56 -0.38
Frankston East 1,214 750 61.78 464 38.22 2.89
Frankston Heights 1,128 708 62.77 420 37.23 2.24
Frankston Heights East 1,182 674 57.02 508 42.98 -1.72
Frankston North 1,176 773 65.73 403 34.27 1.32
Frankston Rail 887 584 65.84 303 34.16 -1.26
Frankston South 1,279 713 55.75 566 44.25 1.98
Frankston South East 1,671 869 52.00 802 48.00 0.69
Frankston South West 1,140 638 55.96 502 44.04 5.33
Karingal 1,528 997 65.25 531 34.75 0.74
Karingal Central 766 493 64.36 273 35.64 -0.63
Karingal Heights 1,309 821 62.72 488 37.28 0.71
Langwarrin 2,009 1,099 54.70 910 45.30 0.79
Langwarrin Central 1,444 733 50.76 711 49.24 -3.34
Langwarrin North 1,259 680 54.01 579 45.99 -1.85
Langwarrin Park 1,803 1,047 58.07 756 41.93 3.72
Mordialloc DUNKLEY PPVC 2,679 1,486 55.47 1,193 44.53 -1.11
Mount Eliza (Dunkley) 355 181 50.99 174 49.01 6.64
Mount Eliza DUNKLEY PPVC 2,443 1,232 50.43 1,211 49.57 1.81
Mount Eliza North 475 240 50.53 235 49.47 -5.71
Other Mobile Team 1 239 133 55.65 106 44.35 2.32
Patterson Central 1,127 564 50.04 563 49.96 0.66
Patterson Lakes 1,226 604 49.27 622 50.73 2.23
Seaford 1,207 795 65.87 412 34.13 2.52
Seaford East 1,617 995 61.53 622 38.47 -0.25
Seaford North 1,056 682 64.58 374 35.42 2.56
Seaford South 1,174 790 67.29 384 32.71 4.10
Skye 1,113 669 60.11 444 39.89 1.52
Special Hospital Team 1 145 80 55.17 65 44.83 1.00
Special Hospital Team 2 191 104 54.45 87 45.55 0.47
Special Hospital Team 3 171 90 52.63 81 47.37 -0.96
ABSENT 3,514 2,042 58.11 1,472 41.89 0.00
PRE_POLL 3,425 1,844 53.84 1,581 46.16 0.00
POSTAL 22,060 11,665 52.88 10,395 47.12 0.00
PROVISIONAL 109 64 58.72 45 41.28 0.00
Division Total 109,172 62,199 56.97 46,973 43.03 0.20

Profile of division of Dunkley (VIC)
Elected member Belyea, J (ALP). Elected 2024.
Name derivation Named in honour of Louisa Margaret Dunkley, 1866-1927. Dunkley was a union leader and feminist who founded the Victorian Women's Post and Telegraph Association in 1900 and campaigned for equal pay for women.
First proclaimed / election 2024/1984
Area 148 sq. kms
Demographic Outer Metropolitan
Pre-Election seat status Fairly Safe
Seat status Undefined
Location The Division of Dunkley consists of Frankston City Council, part of the Kingston City Council, and part of the Mornington Peninsula Shire Council.
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