2025 Federal Election
Marginal seats
Updated: Sun, 04 May 2025 7:58:56 PM AEST
This table provides a list of marginal divisions. The data includes the current swing - a comparison of the current two candidate preferred (TCP) vote percentage for each marginal division compared to the previous federal election. It also notes the TCP swing required for the seat to change hands.
This table is sortable by selecting on column headers.
Notes:
- A seat is classified as marginal when the result of the previous federal election occurred with the winning party receiving less than 56% of the TCP vote.
- Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only. Votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is higher than the alternative TCP candidate, regardless of other preferences. The TCP count ultimately determines who wins the seat.
- These results are not final.
| Division | Held by | Likely to change? | State | TCP counted (%) | Swing required | Swing now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennelong | Australian Labor Party | NSW | 100.00 | +0.04 | +9.53 | |
| Gilmore | Australian Labor Party | NSW | 100.00 | -0.17 | +4.91 | |
| Lyons | Australian Labor Party | TAS | 98.61 | -0.92 | +10.55 | |
| Lingiari | Australian Labor Party | NT | 98.08 | -1.60 | +6.40 | |
| Robertson | Australian Labor Party | NSW | 99.99 | -2.23 | +7.53 | |
| Paterson | Australian Labor Party | NSW | 99.52 | -2.60 | +4.28 | |
| Tangney | Australian Labor Party | WA | 100.00 | -2.85 | +3.28 | |
| Boothby | Australian Labor Party | SA | 100.00 | -3.28 | +7.72 | |
| Chisholm | Australian Labor Party | VIC | 100.00 | -3.33 | +2.45 | |
| Bullwinkel | Australian Labor Party | WA | 100.00 | -3.35 | -3.30 | |
| Parramatta | Australian Labor Party | NSW | 100.00 | -3.72 | +9.28 | |
| McEwen | Australian Labor Party | VIC | 100.00 | -3.82 | +1.06 | |
| Hunter | Australian Labor Party | NSW | 98.86 | -4.78 | ****** | |
| Reid | Australian Labor Party | NSW | 100.00 | -5.19 | +7.14 | |
| Blair | Australian Labor Party | QLD | 100.00 | -5.23 | +0.80 | |
| Bruce | Australian Labor Party | VIC | 99.99 | -5.31 | +9.97 | |
| Werriwa | Australian Labor Party | NSW | 98.12 | -5.34 | +0.89 | |
| Menzies | Liberal | Yes | VIC | 100.00 | +0.42 | -0.67 |
| Deakin | Liberal | Yes | VIC | 99.85 | -0.02 | -4.18 |
| Sturt | Liberal | Yes | SA | 100.08 | -0.45 | -7.20 |
| Moore | Liberal | Yes | WA | 100.00 | -0.91 | -3.83 |
| Canning | Liberal | WA | 100.00 | -1.20 | +4.66 | |
| Casey | Liberal | VIC | 99.99 | -1.43 | +0.82 | |
| Bass | Liberal | Yes | TAS | 100.00 | -1.43 | -9.94 |
| Aston | Liberal | Yes | VIC | 100.00 | -2.61 | -5.76 |
| Banks | Liberal | Yes | NSW | 100.00 | -2.64 | -4.66 |
| Monash | Liberal | VIC | 100.22 | -2.90 | ****** | |
| Bradfield | Liberal | Yes | NSW | 98.72 | -3.40 | -3.87 |
| Hughes | Liberal | Yes | NSW | 100.00 | -3.46 | -5.93 |
| Wannon | Liberal | VIC | 100.00 | -3.50 | +0.08 | |
| Forrest | Liberal | WA | 100.00 | -4.19 | -1.69 | |
| Durack | Liberal | WA | 95.96 | -4.66 | +5.28 | |
| Dickson | Liberal National Party of Queensland | Yes | QLD | 97.70 | -1.70 | -8.22 |
| Longman | Liberal National Party of Queensland | Yes | QLD | 100.00 | -3.08 | -3.24 |
| Bonner | Liberal National Party of Queensland | Yes | QLD | 99.99 | -3.41 | -9.00 |
| Leichhardt | Liberal National Party of Queensland | Yes | QLD | 99.68 | -3.44 | -10.28 |
| Flynn | Liberal National Party of Queensland | QLD | 98.94 | -3.82 | +5.53 | |
| Forde | Liberal National Party of Queensland | Yes | QLD | 99.14 | -4.23 | -5.99 |
| Petrie | Liberal National Party of Queensland | Yes | QLD | 100.00 | -4.44 | -5.95 |
| Bowman | Liberal National Party of Queensland | QLD | 99.77 | -5.51 | -2.81 | |
| Nicholls | The Nationals | VIC | 100.00 | +50.00 | +65.54 | |
| Cowper | The Nationals | NSW | 100.00 | -2.40 | +0.77 | |
| Ryan | The Greens | QLD | 100.00 | -2.65 | ****** | |
| Melbourne | The Greens | Yes | VIC | 5.75 | -5.58 | -19.81 |